Carbon Capture's 120x Challenge: Who's Actually Delivering While McKinsey Calls for Scale

McKinsey's latest analysis delivers a stark reality check: carbon capture technologies need to grow by a staggering 120 times by 2050 to meet global net-zero commitments. But while consultants crunch numbers, a growing roster of companies is already putting carbon removal credits on the market, proving the industry has serious momentum beyond the boardroom projections.

The gap between ambition and action has never been clearer. McKinsey projects that carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) must reach at least 4.2 gigatons annually, with some scenarios demanding up to 10 gigatons per year. That's roughly equivalent to removing the emissions of 800 coal power plants, or nearly three times the entire airline industry's carbon footprint.

The challenge is even starker when you consider the current pipeline. Based on existing CCUS projects, only 110 million tonnes per annum are expected by 2030. Yet to meet the net-zero commitments of 64 governments, approximately 715 million tonnes are needed by 2030 and 4.2 billion tonnes by 2050.

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The Scale-Up Reality Check

The consultancy warns that CCUS has "struggled to find its footing" over three decades, pointing to inadequate policy frameworks and insufficient financial incentives. McKinsey's analysis reveals the stark reality: of 263 CCUS projects undertaken from 1995 to 2018, 78% of larger projects (above 0.3 million tonnes per year) have been canceled or put on hold.

Yet this assessment misses a crucial development: the carbon removal market has already started delivering tangible results, with nearly 15 million tonnes contracted by May 2025 according to CDR.fyi data. While traditional industrial CCUS struggles with scale and complexity, biochar and other distributed approaches are proving that carbon capture can work commercially today.

Leading the Charge: Top 10 Carbon Removal Suppliers

While McKinsey focuses on future scaling challenges, companies across the globe are actively removing carbon and delivering verified credits to buyers. Here's who's actually moving the needle right now:

1. Exomad Green (Bolivia)

The undisputed leader with 1.76 million tonnes sold and 150,820 tonnes delivered. The biochar pioneer secured the largest-ever biochar agreement with Microsoft for 1.24 million tonnes. Their flagship facility in Bolivia's Guarayos Region will become the world's largest biochar production site when operational in mid-2026.

2. Aperam BioEnergia (Brazil)

This Minas Gerais-based operation has sold 121,183 tonnes with 89,298 tonnes delivered. As an operating unit of global stainless steel company Aperam, they produce biochar from FSC-certified eucalyptus plantations, attracting clients like Nasdaq exchange and Swedish bank SEB.

3. Varaha (India)

Operating across India, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Kenya, Varaha has sold 195,364 tonnes with 83,361 tonnes delivered. The company made headlines with a major Google agreement for 100,000 tonnes of biochar by 2030.

4-10. The Rising Players

Company	Location	Tonnes Sold	Specialty
Wakefield Biochar	Georgia, USA	57,841	Wood waste processing
Carboneers	Netherlands	123,210	Global South partnerships
Pacific Biochar	California, USA	42,159	Fire hazard biomass
Freres Biochar	Oregon, USA	26,498	Cogeneration facility
CarbonCure	Canada	36,979	concreteConcrete mineralization
Planboo	Global South	34,298	Tropical biochar projects
Running Tide	Maine, USA	28,302	Ocean carbon removal

Four Revenue Streams Driving the Market

McKinsey identifies four critical revenue streams that will determine CCUS viability beyond government subsidies. Interestingly, the companies leading carbon removal today are already tapping into several of these streams:

The current carbon removal leaders are already proving this model works. Companies like CarbonCure inject captured CO2 into concrete, creating both permanent carbon storage and stronger building materials. Biochar producers sell premium soil amendments while generating carbon removal credits. This dual-revenue approach is exactly what McKinsey says the industry needs to achieve commercial viability.

Market Momentum vs. Historical Failures

The numbers tell a compelling story of an industry already in motion. CDR deliveries reached 318,600 tonnes in 2024, with contracted volumes hitting nearly 8 million tonnes. By May 2025, contracts had nearly doubled to 15 million tonnes, suggesting the market is accelerating faster than many projections anticipated.

This market activity contrasts sharply with McKinsey's warning about traditional CCUS deployment happening "far too slowly." The consultancy notes that China, Europe, India, and the United States account for more than 60% of industrial point-source emissions, requiring a highly distributed deployment approach. While large-scale industrial capture faces policy and investment hurdles, the carbon removal sector has found ways to deliver results through smaller-scale, distributed approaches that can scale up over time.

Bridging the Scale Gap

The tension between McKinsey's 120x scaling requirement and current market progress highlights a crucial question: can today's carbon removal leaders bridge the gap to industrial-scale deployment? Early indicators suggest yes, but with important caveats.

Companies like CarbonCure represent the industrial integration approach, injecting captured CO2 directly into concrete production. By 2030, they aim to reach 500 million metric tons of annual carbon reduction and removal. That scale would single-handedly address 5-12% of McKinsey's projected requirements.

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Investment and Policy Alignment

McKinsey's call for better policy frameworks aligns with growing industry momentum. The consultancy specifically points to inadequate policy landscapes in most markets, emphasizing the need for more direct and indirect incentives plus targeted regulations. This policy focus could accelerate the transition from today's million-tonne market to tomorrow's gigaton requirements.

Financial markets are also responding to the carbon removal sector's growth. The data from CDR.fyi shows contracted volumes nearly doubled from 8 million tonnes in 2024 to 15 million tonnes by May 2025, indicating strong buyer confidence in the technology's long-term viability.

The Path Forward

McKinsey's 120x scaling challenge isn't just about technology, it's about proving commercial viability at unprecedented scale. The top 10 carbon removal suppliers have demonstrated that buyers exist, delivery is possible, and diverse approaches can work. Now the question is whether policy support, investment flows, and technological innovation can accelerate this progress fast enough to meet 2050 targets.

The early movers in carbon removal aren't waiting for perfect conditions. They're building facilities, signing contracts, and delivering verified tonnes while the broader industry debates scaling strategies. In a sector where McKinsey warns of slow progress, these companies represent proof that carbon capture isn't just critical for the future, it's happening right now.