Clean Hydrogen Production Still Growing, but Slower Than Before

Hydrogen Council finds US$35bln increase in clean hydrogen but IEA says most hydrogen production still comes from fossil fuels.

The Hydrogen Council says there is now US$110bln investment across more than 500 clean hydrogen projects worldwide that are past final investment decision, in construction or already operational – representing a US$35bln increase since last year.

Its Global hydrogen compass report, co-authored with McKinsey & co., finds that since 2020, the sector has averaged a 50% growth rate of committed investment every year.

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In those five years, more than 1,700 hydrogen projects have been announced globally, equating to an increase of 7.5 times. However. approximately 50 projects have been publicly cancelled in the past 18 months, representing ~3% of the total pipeline, most being early-stage renewable hydrogen ventures.

The Hydrogen Council says that structural challenges, including persistently high interest rates and delayed policy implementation in some regions, are adding pressure to the selection process.

Total committed capacity is reported to exceed 6mln tonnes a year (mtpa), including 1mtpa already in operation. The council says that after accounting for delays and expected attrition, the current pipeline could support 9-14mtpa of clean hydrogen capacity by 2030, but that will require more demand. About 3.6mtpa of binding offtake has been secured.

And, as policy clarity emerges in key markets such as the EU, US, Japan and Korea, the report says up to 8mtpa of clean hydrogen demand could materialise by 2030.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that despite a recent wave of project delays and cancellations, low-emissions hydrogen production will see robust growth to 2030 as the sector continues to develop, though at a slower pace than earlier this decade.

Its annual Global hydrogen review finds that worldwide hydrogen demand increased to almost 100mln tonnes in 2024, 2% up from 2023 and in line with overall energy inflation.

The vast majority being hydrogen from fossil fuels without measures to capture assoicated emissions. says the IEA. Sectors that are traditionally large users, such as oil refining and industry, remain the biggest consumers.

Globally, it is still much cheaper to produce hydrogen from fossil fuels, finds the IEA review. This gap has widened lately due to recent declines in natural gas prices and an increase in the cost of electrolysers from inflation and slower than expected deployment. The review estimates the cost gap to narrow by 2030 due to declining technology costs, and strong renewables growth and new reuglations in some areas.

The IEA's analysis of announced projects finds that low-emissions hydrogen production has the potential to reach up to 37mtpa by 2030, down from a potential 49mtpa a year earlier, also based on announced projects.

The Hydrogen Council finds that China has been found to lead the world in total committed investments, with US$33bln, and renewable hydrogen production of more than half of global renewable capacity. North America is second, with US$23bln, and home to 85% of global low-carbon hydrogen production. Meanwhile, Europe ranks third, with US$19bln of committed investment, but accounting for nearly two-thirds of expected 2030 global demand.