Oregon Forests on Track to Become Net Carbon Source by 2029, Analysis Warns

Oregon's forests, long among the most carbon-dense ecosystems in North America, are on a troubling trajectory. A newly released analysis projects that the state's forests will flip from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source as early as 2029, a shift that is expected to persist through the end of the century.

The findings come from a carbon budget modeling analysis tied to the state's broader land-based greenhouse gas accounting work. While forest restoration and improved land management could reduce projected forest emissions by as much as 45%, the report concludes these interventions will not be enough to reverse the overall trend.

>> In Other News: Cura and Captura Collaborate to Advance Bipolar Membrane Technology for Low-Carbon Cement Production

The analysis aligns with data published in the Oregon Department of Energy's Land-Based Net Carbon Inventory, submitted to the Oregon Legislature in December 2025. That inventory, developed by ODOE and the Oregon Climate Action Commission in coordination with seven land managing agencies, found that Oregon's forest land accounted for 91% of net carbon removals across all land categories in 2024, but that overall land-based carbon removals have been declining since 1990. Oregon

Net removals dropped from 94.82 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent in 1990 to 48.71 MMTCO2e in 2024. Oregon That's roughly a 49% decline in the forests' carbon-absorbing capacity over just three decades.

What's Driving the Shift

Wildfires and Climate Stress

Emissions from wildfires have increased significantly since 1990, particularly over the past decade. Energy Info Oregon's 2024 fire season was among the worst in 30 years, with over 1.9 million acres burned and six megafires recorded statewide.

Wildfire, drought, and heat waves are expected to become more frequent and severe, threatening forest carbon functions that communities and the planet depend on. Oregon Department of Forestry Tree mortality from insect outbreaks and prolonged summer drought is also accelerating, particularly in eastern and southern Oregon.

The Sink Is Still There, But Barely

For now, Oregon's forests remain a net sink. But the modeling work makes clear that business as usual leads to a carbon tipping point within this decade. Even the most aggressive natural climate solution scenarios, including deferred timber harvest, riparian reforestation, and post-wildfire replanting, slow the decline rather than stop it.

What Oregon Is Doing About It

In 2023, the Oregon Legislature passed House Bill 3409, establishing the Natural and Working Lands Fund and directing the Oregon Climate Action Commission, ODOE, and seven agencies to build an accounting system for tracking greenhouse gases across Oregon's landscape. Oregon

An initial $10 million appropriation was allocated among the Oregon Department of Agriculture, the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, the Oregon Department of Forestry, and the Oregon Watershed Enhancement Board to fund nature-based climate solutions. Oregon

About the Oregon Land-Based Net Carbon Inventory

The Land-Based Net Carbon Inventory is Oregon's first comprehensive, state-level accounting of GHG emissions and carbon removals across forest land, grasslands, cropland, developed land, wetlands, and biomass burning. It was developed with support from the Greenhouse Gas Management Institute, along with subcontractors Silvestrum Climate Associates and Sierra View Solutions.

The inventory is designed to serve as a living baseline, with ODOE responsible for updating it at regular intervals to track the effectiveness of natural climate solutions across the state.